Cutting Through the Crap

Just the important parts of the most recent Press Democrat housing bubble article- aka. The Sonoma County Real Estate Industrial Complex (REIC) paid PR service.

"The long run of escalating prices that gave every seller hope of cashing in on rising home values has ended."

"Sales have fallen more than 27 percent so far this year."

"Prices have dropped the past three months to $567,500, down from last year's record of $619,000 for a median-priced home in Sonoma County, the first such decline in 12 years. The number of homes for sale is at a nine-year high."

'"Buyers are looking for the best deal. That's the way the market works. There's nothing wrong with that," said Brian Connell, broker-manager for Frank Howard Allen Realtors in Santa Rosa."
'"Today the listed price is just a suggested asking price," said Belinda Andrews, an agent with Century 21 Alliance in Santa Rosa."'

"The correction, long expected by many economists, has been faster and steeper than many anticipated."We have not seen the bottom of this," said Chris Thornberg, a principal with Beacon Economics in Los Angeles and formerly with the UCLA Anderson Forecast."

'"It's tougher for everybody. You figure out what it takes to do business. Everybody has figured out how to reprice their homes," said George Casey, chief executive officer of Christopherson Homes, the county's largest home builder. Christopherson has cut prices in its Sonoma County projects 5 percent to 10 percent from last year's highs."

"Just this month, Christopherson launched a new incentive for any agent who brings in a new buyer - a trip to the Kona Coast on Hawaii's Big Island, valued at $5,000."

"A small local builder, The Housing Company, has followed the lead of its larger counterparts and cut prices 10percent for the five houses it is putting up in Santa Rosa."

'"You have to get creative. I thought before that just being the most affordable of everything was going to be enough," said Bruce Shimizu, a partner in the company."

'"People have been sitting on the fence," he said. "They want to buy. I just think they need to be convinced this is the best deal they're going to get."'

"Brokers described a resistance among many sellers to accept less than what a neighbor's home sold for earlier."

"Sonoma County's last housing downturn, in the early 1990s, lasted four years and prices fell 4.2 percent before bottoming out. Those declines were driven by a recession and job losses, while the current sales and price drops are more an overdue correction for an overheated market."

"A return to soaring home values is unlikely anytime soon. A number of economic forecasts predict the market will remain weak and prices flat over the next two to five years."

I really did have to cut out more than half the article as it was a whole lot of "the market is great for buyers" crap. And I do mean crap. They are trying to persuade buyers that 5-10% decreases in prices have made it safe for everyone. They claim multiple times it is now a buyer's market. They equate lots of inventory with being a buyer's market. Record high inventory, does NOT a buyer's market make.

It is still very much an F'd Borrower's Market... those who overpaid and are getting crushed by their resetting exotic loans, and any greater fool willing to catch the still falling knife.

Even REIC economists admit the last five years of runaway prices were UNSUSTAINABLE price increases, and refer to the housing market here as OVERBLOATED.

We have heard many things- UNREALISTIC, OVERHEATED, INFLATED, BUBBLY, FROTHY. Well guess what? If the price increases were unsustainable, unjustified, overheated, inflated, unrealistic- then this thing they like to refer to as a "CORRECTION" is not a wimpy, lousy, lame 5-10% decrease in unrealistic, unsustainable, overheated, inflated, housing prices. It is completely realistic that a price CORRECTION means removing the elements that were unsustainable, overheated and inflated- ... and a real correction will be a price reversion to the mean.

Some thoughts from a great article at the Marin Real Estate Bubble site:

1. First, realize that you buyers have the money and so the power.

2. It's a "waiter's market"...the longer you wait, the cheaper you will get the house So that 5-10% is probably not the best deal you are going to get. Remember, these builders and FB's are the ones who NEED to sell... you DON'T have to buy.

3. When a realtor claims "it is a great time to buy" - what they really mean is it is a great time to give them a commission.

4. It is always better to buy at reduced prices - and if for nothing else it will keep your tax bill lower. Seriously, so what if the FB is graciously offering to pay the closing costs for you? When he offers to pay half your mortgage and property taxes it will be worthwhile.

Remember the closing costs and interest rates aren't the problem. Housing prices doubled based on greed and speculation in the last 5 years. Is it really worth paying double what a house is worth to avoid a few interest percentage points or to get seller paid closing costs?

As far as I'm concerned cut the price of the house in half and double the interest rate, and I will still come out better than most F@cked Borrowers who paid double and triple the value of their chitbox but have a 6% interest rate. (and that is if they are lucky)

So I think it is time for a Buyer's Revolution as advocated by Catherine Hockmuth of the Voice of San Diego. (referenced by Marinite's post)

Here's how you do it:

Figure out what the house you are interested in was worth 5 years ago- Adjust that price from five years ago by +28% to take into account five years of inflation, and voila, that is how much you should pay for that house, not a penny more.

That will be a correction. That will be a return to sustainable prices more in line with the incomes of the population.

Value of house 5 years ago + 28% = Buyer's Revolution Price

As for how to deal with the unbelieving Sellers and their Agents...

1. Remember the sale price is not determined by what someone owes and wants to make in profit- it is determined by what the buyer wants to pay.

2. With today's inventory there are plenty of options. If you insult one by offering what a normal market would have paid if flippers and loose lending standards hadn't screwed everything up, there are 3821 listings to choose from in Sonoma County according to norcalmls.com.

3. It's not your fault if a seller overpaid or HELOCed out most or all of their equity and don't want to sell for less. Why should you overpay because they were foolish? If they overpaid- that doesn't require you to do the same in order for them to feel less foolish. If they paid for their lifestyle with funnymoney how is that your problem?

In other news....

“‘We need a price decline, we were overbloated,’ particularly on the West Coast, David Lereah, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, told attendees at his organization’s annual meeting here on Friday.”

“Saying that ‘the worst may be over,’ the housing industry’s chief economist said Friday that home prices must continue to come down in some regions before the real estate slump plays out.”

“Lereah said the national picture is positive. ‘I’m optimistic for 74 percent of the country,’ where local markets are, at worst, flat. The other 26 percent are in for some rough times.”
“Struggling the most would be California, South Florida, Arizona, Nevada, and metro Washington, D.C., he said, where sellers need to lower their prices.”

'“Steve Murray, an industry consultant who followed Lereah on the podium at the convention said in an interview before his speech. ‘People who think this thing is going to turn around in six months are out of their minds.”'

“There will also be fewer real estate agents. ‘We are actually predicting an 8 percent drop in membership,’ Mr. Lereah told Realtors, who enthusiastically applauded the news. ‘Productivity will get better as we have less members and the quality will improve. It’s an overall good thing for the industry.’”

Price Reduced 11-13-06 (part 1)

Price Reduced List (Part 1)

Including Zillow estimate values
and *Buyer’s Revolution Price

*estimated 2001 price + 28% (allowance for 5 years of inflation)
Estimation swag’d from zillow graphs


18155 BARRETT AVE, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 10/31/06 -- $439,000 to $432,000
Days on Market: 31

Zillow Sez: $523,802
Sale History
09/20/2006: $450,290
09/07/2005: $495,000
03/17/2005: $326,000
08/31/2001: $269,000
2005 Property Tax $3,721
Total assessed value: = $495,000

Buyer’s revolution price: $344,320

18252 LUCAS AVE, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 10/16/06 -- $500,000 to $479,000
Days on Market: 57

Zillow sez: $509,744
No Sale History Available
2005 Property Tax: $1,978
Total assessed value: = $127,246

Buyer’s revolution price: $281,600

18440 LUCAS AVE, Sonoma, CA 95476 this has been re-listed at least once
Price Reduced: 11/02/06 -- $439,000 to $399,000
Days on Market: 75

Zillow now sez: $448,636

From Price Reduced list posting 4/19/06
Price Reduced: 02/28/06 -- $515,000 to $499,999
Days on Market: 196

Buyer’s Revolution Price: 256k


18450 LUCAS AVE, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 10/10/06 -- $499,000 to $489,000
Days on Market: 59

Zillow sez: $442,499
Sale History
02/24/2006: $510,000
02/22/2001: $10,000
04/13/2000: $120,000
07/02/1996: $87,000
2005 Property Tax: $2,280
Total assessed value: = $148,458

Buyer’s revolution price: 256k

18311 COMSTOCK AVE, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 10/31/06 -- $470,000 to $460,000
Days on Market: 40

Zillow sez: $485,493
Sale History
04/30/1999: $185,000
03/25/1994: $164,000
03/19/1993: $97,000
2005 Property Tax: $2,883
Total Assessed value: = $212,229

Buyer’s revolution price: $256k

18046 COMSTOCK AVE, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 08/23/06 -- $519,000 to $499,000
Price Reduced: 09/22/06 -- $499,000 to $479,000
Price Reduced: 10/26/06 -- $479,000 to $469,000
Days on Market: 113

Zillow sez: $447,701
Sale History
12/24/1997: $163,000
2005 Property Tax: $2,721
Total assessed value: = $189,867

Buyer’s revolution price: 256k

695 MICHAEL DR, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 10/30/06 -- $1,079,000 to $1,029,000
Days on Market: 31
Zillow sez: $1,067,376
Sale History
08/17/2005: $998,000
05/01/1997: $355,000
2005 Property Tax $5,042
Total assessed value: = $998,000

Buyer’s revolution price: $595,200k

20635 HYDE RD, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 10/31/06 -- $1,049,000 to $975,000
Days on Market: 38

Zillow sez: $858,021
Sale History
07/03/2003: $504,000
2005 Property Tax $5,764
Total assessed value: $524,361

Buyer’s revolution price: $524,800

346 LAKE ST, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 11/01/06 -- $535,000 to $520,000
Days on Market: 41

Zillow sez: $504,769
No Sales History Available
2005 Property Tax $2,106
Total assessed value: - $139,294

Buyer’s revolution price: $256k

330 CALLE DEL MONTE, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 10/25/06 -- $509,000 to $495,000
Days on Market: 46

Zillow sez: $497,450
Sale History
12/12/2005: $215,500
06/30/2000: $200,000
2005 Property Tax: $3,302
Total assessed value: = $367,199

Buyer’s revolution price: $368,640

250 CALLE DEL MONTE, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 10/04/06 -- $499,500 to $475,000
Days on Market: 80

Zillow sez: $456,794
Sale History
12/20/2005: $390,000
12/27/2002: $265,000
2005 Property Tax: $3,691
Total assessed value: = $280,859



465 CALLE DEL MONTE, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 08/14/06 -- $589,000 to $575,000
Price Reduced: 09/18/06 -- $575,000 to $549,000
Price Reduced: 10/20/06 -- $549,000 to $529,000
Days on Market: 164

Zillow sez: $544,949
Sale History
06/15/2000: $255,000
03/12/1993: $132,000
2005 Property Tax: $3,678
Total assessed value: = $286,802

Buyer’s revolution price: $352k

17370 KEATON AVE, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 10/31/06 -- $559,000 to $549,000
Days on Market: 45

Zillow sez: $944,131
No Sale History Available
2005 Property Tax: $2,006
Total assessed value: = $96,092

Buyer’s revolution price: 416k

17315 KEATON AVE, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 10/12/06 -- $625,000 to $599,000
Days on Market: 54

Zillow sez: $674,291
Sale History
No Sale History available
2005 Property Tax: $0
Total assessed value: = $191,006

Buyer’s revolution price: 384k

114 MELODY CT, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 10/10/06 -- $675,000 to $659,500
Days on Market: 50

Zillow sez: $679,621
No Sale History Available
2005 Property Tax $2,512
Total assessed value: = $177,384

Buyer’s revolution price: $396,800

17240 HIGH RD, Sonoma, CA 95476 - This has been relisted at least once
Price Reduced: 10/24/06 -- $1,800,000 to $1,725,000
Days on Market: 51

Zillow sez: $1,777,732

Was on the price reduced list: 4/19/2006
(previous posting info below)

Price Reduced: 03/27/06 -- $2,000,000 to $1,895,000
Days on Market: 57 as of 4/19/06
zillow said: $2,021,988
Sale History
06/24/1999: $975,000
09/25/1996: $465,000
tax: $11,964
tax value: $1,096,605

Buyer’s revolution price: 768k

760 SOLANO AVE, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 09/09/06 -- $689,000 to $687,000
Days on Market: 89

Zillow sez: $670,814
Sale History
03/19/2003: $470,000
12/27/1996: $201,000
06/15/1994: $207,500
2005 Property Tax: $5,930
Total assessed value: = $498,131

Buyer’s revolution price: $378,880

950 SOLANO AVE, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 10/16/06 -- $619,500 to $599,900
Days on Market: 52

Zillow sez: $619,860
Sale History
05/29/2002: $345,500
08/25/1995: $113,000
08/25/1994: $106,500
12/20/1993: $28,284
12/15/1993: $28,284
2005 Property Tax: $4,602
Total assessed value: = $373,501

Buyer’s revolution price: 256k

1218 CALLE DEL ARROYO, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 10/17/06 -- $949,000 to $899,000
Days on Market: 52

Zillow sez: $662,675
Sale History
02/01/2005: $162,000
2005 Property Tax: $5,774
Total assessed value: = $517,480

SWAG’d because it didn’t exist in 2001, but their pricing is based on money grubbing dreams. 40% haircut.

Buyer’s revolution price: $540k


1218 FRYER CREEK DR, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 10/06/06 -- $575,000 to $549,500
Days on Market: 54

Zillow sez: $563,849
Sale History
07/31/2002: $380,000
06/29/2001: $380,000
2005 Property Tax: $5,046
Total assessed value: = $418,902

Buyer’s revolution price: $486,400

1238 FRYER CREEK DR, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 07/20/06 -- $689,000 to $655,000
Days on Market: 151

Zillow sez: $595,253
Sale History
11/30/2001: $370,500
2005 Property Tax: $4,924
Total assessed value: = $400,310

Buyer’s revolution price: $473,600

1068 FRYER CREEK DR, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 07/08/06 -- $998,000 to $987,500
Price Reduced: 08/28/06 -- $987,500 to $968,000
Days on Market: 193

Zillow sez: $901,260
Sale History
04/25/2000: $485,000
2005 Property Tax: $6,430
Total assessed value: = $545,374

Buyer’s revolution price: $620,800

18404 YALE CT, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 10/03/06 -- $675,000 to $649,000
Price Reduced: 10/17/06 -- $649,000 to $599,000
Days on Market: 45

Zillow sez: $653,476
Sale History
02/01/1995: $219,000
2005 Property Tax: $3,400
Total assessed value: = $253,549

Buyer’s revolution price: $409,600

616 AUSTIN AVE, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 09/22/06 -- $1,195,000 to $1,098,000
Price Reduced: 10/20/06 -- $1,098,000 to $1,050,000
Days on Market: 59

Zillow sez: $727,965
Sale History
08/27/1993: $267,000
2005 Property Tax: $4,521
Total assessed value: = $362,546

Buyer’s revolution price: $396,800

17930 SPRING ST, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 12/08/05 -- $499,000 to $484,000
Price Reduced: 04/07/06 -- $484,000 to $479,000
Days on Market: 388

From 4/19/06 price reduced list:
Zillow sez: $440,055
Sales History:
07/12/2001: $180,000
07/16/1999: $85,000
Tax $2,718
Tax value: $198,366

Buyer’s revolution price: $230,400

381 WALNUT AVE, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 11/04/06 -- $759,000 to $739,000
Days on Market: 60

Zillow sez: $487,700
No Sale History
2005 Property Tax: $2,515
Total assessed value: $177,696

Buyer’s revolution price: 256k

146 SAINT JAMES DR, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 10/05/06 -- $659,000 to $609,000
Days on Market: 60

Zillow sez: $633,024
Sale History
08/07/2003: $425,000
04/28/2000: $280,000
2005 Property Tax: $5,334
Total assessed value: = $442,170

Buyer’s revolution price: $460,800

105 VINEYARD CIR, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 10/20/06 -- $487,000 to $438,000
Days on Market: 63

Zillow sez: $493,000
No Sale History Available
2005 Property Tax: $2,326
Total assessed value: = $159,975

Buyer’s revolution price: $339,200

39 VINEYARD CIR, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 06/16/06 -- $409,000 to $395,000
Price Reduced: 09/08/06 -- $399,000 to $375,000
Days on Market: 207

Zillow sez: $485,305
Sale History
09/17/1996: $105,000
2005 Property Tax: $1,957
Total assessed value: = $125,321

Buyer’s revolution price: $275,200

510 LAS LOMAS ST, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 09/26/06 -- $638,000 to $599,000
Days on Market: 67

Zillow sez: $513,125
Sale History
06/05/1998: $166,500
09/20/1996: $120,000
2005 Property Tax: $2,690
Total assessed value: = $194,076

Buyer’s revolution price: 256k

470 BERNICE LN, Sonoma, CA 95476 on a previous price reduced list
Price Reduced: 03/02/06 -- $409,500 to $399,000
Price Reduced: 04/10/06 -- $399,000 to $385,000
Price Reduced: 08/11/06 -- $385,000 to $379,000
Price Reduced: 09/01/06 -- $379,000 to $369,000
Days on Market: 287

From 4/19/06 priced reduced posting:
Zillow sez: $419,124
97 value $121k(condo)
Sale History
03/03/2004: $304,000
07/28/2003: $265,000
12/23/1994: $121,500
Tax $3,528
Tax value $310,080

Buyer’s revolution price: 256k

19255 TWIN OAKS LN, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 10/05/06 -- $989,000 to $949,000
Days on Market: 67

Zillow sez: $942,405
Sale History
06/30/2005: $905,000 (please give a warm welcome to Twin Oaks Ln. newest FB)
07/01/1993: $266,000
2005 Property Tax: $3,711
Total assessed value: = $923,100

Buyer’s revolution price: 384k

13400 SADDLE RD, Glen Ellen, CA 95442
Price Reduced: 12/19/05 -- $1,149,000 to $1,049,000
Price Reduced: 05/30/06 -- $1,049,000 to $999,000
Price Reduced: $999,000 -- $865,500
Days on Market: 452

From 4/19/06 price reduced list:
Zillow said: $902,141
No Sale History Available
Tax $4,813
Tax value $391,001

Buyer’s revolution price: 480k

935 W SPAIN ST #E, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 10/06/06 -- $639,000 to $635,000
Price Reduced: 10/06/06 -- $635,000 to $625,000
Days on Market: 66

Zillow sez: $595,965
Sale History
11/04/2005: $635,000
07/13/2004: $511,000
07/24/2001: $125,000
05/12/1998: $215,000
2005 Property Tax: $6,151
Total assessed value: = $635,000

Buyer’s revolution price: $396,800

860 W SPAIN ST, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 10/18/06 -- $539,500 to $483,500
Price Reduced: 11/02/06 -- $483,500 to $455,000
Days on Market: 71

Zillow sez: $524,013
Sale History
10/31/2002: $121,000
11/30/2000: $274,000
2005 Property Tax: $3,801
Total assessed value: = $302,129

Buyer’s revolution price: $358,400

154 W SPAIN ST #W, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 10/05/06 -- $815,000 to $785,000
Price Reduced: 11/01/06 -- $785,000 to $775,000
Days on Market: 75

Zillow sez: $614,852
No Sale History Available
2005 Property Tax: $3,159
Total assessed value: = $241,822

Buyer’s revolution price: $$358,400

222 226 W SPAIN ST, Sonoma, CA 95476 on a previous price reduced list
Price Reduced: 02/10/06 -- $2,275,000 to $1,975,000
Price Reduced: 06/09/06 -- $1,975,000 to $1,675,000
Price Increased: 06/12/06 -- $1,675,000 to $1,775,000
Price Reduced: 07/10/06 -- $1,775,000 to $1,715,000
Days on Market: 291

From 4/19/06 price reduced list:
zillow said:$1,478,839
Sales history:12/02/2005: $1,500,000
97 value 190k each unit
tax:$6,677
tax value: $504,278

Buyer’s revolution price 544k

19549 CYPRESS RD, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 09/26/06 -- $780,000 to $749,900
Price Reduced: 10/06/06 -- $749,900 to $699,000
Days on Market: 71

Zillow sez: $619,808
2005 Property Tax: $2,654
Total assessed value: = $239,277

Buyer’s revolution price: 320k

1420 GROVE ST, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 10/31/06 -- $4,995,000 to $4,499,000
Days on Market: 71

Zillow sez: $1,564,237
Sale History
03/10/1999: $400,000
2005 Property Tax: $10,656
Total assessed value: = $1,454,968

Buyer’s revolution price: 768k

829 SECOND ST W, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 10/07/06 -- $479,000 to $470,000
Price Reduced: 10/10/06 -- $470,000 to $455,000
Days on Market: 73

Zillow sez: $457,757
Sale History
09/22/1999: $186,000
08/30/1994: $172,850
2005 Property Tax: $1,569
Total assessed value: = $92,643

Buyer’s revolution price: $281,600

832 SECOND ST W, Sonoma, CA 95476 re-listed at least once since 4/19/06
Price Reduced: 08/10/06 -- $445,000 to $439,000
Price Reduced: 10/31/06 -- $439,000 to $405,000
Days on Market: 141

Price reduced list posting from 4/19/06
Price Reduced: 11/15/05 -- $545,000 to $525,000
Price Reduced: 01/13/06 -- $525,000 to $510,000
Price Reduced: 03/29/06 -- $510,000 to $499,500
Days on Market: 181

Zillow said: $508,324
Sales History: (this is a condo)
08/07/2000: $260,000
05/02/1997: $139,000
06/15/1994: $158,000
Tax $3,567
Tax value: $281,071

Buyer’s revolution price: $229,120

837 2ND ST W, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 05/30/06 -- $535,000 to $525,000
Price Reduced: 06/18/06 -- $525,000 to $510,000
Price Reduced: 07/07/06 -- $510,000 to $499,000
Price Reduced: 08/10/06 -- $499,000 to $497,000
Price Reduced: 08/28/06 -- $497,000 to $493,500
Price Reduced: 09/05/06 -- $493,500 to $480,000
Price Reduced: 10/13/06 -- $480,000 to $465,000
Days on Market: 177

Zillow sez: $478,203
Sale History
06/10/2005: $465,000
10/15/2002: $295,000
03/04/1999: $160,000
09/01/1994: $179,500
2005 Property Tax: $3,914
Total assessed value: = $474,300

Buyer’s revolution price: $249,600


844 W 2ND ST, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 07/11/06 -- $575,000 to $570,000
Price Reduced: 08/01/06 -- $570,000 to $559,000
Price Reduced: 09/26/06 -- $559,000 to $549,500
Price Reduced: 10/31/06 -- $549,500 to $499,500
Days on Market: 123

Zillow sez: $478,938
Sale History
06/06/2002: $279,000
02/21/1997: $136,743
2005 Property Tax: $3,796
Total assessed value: = $301,610

Buyer’s revolution price: $238,080

317 E SECOND ST, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 05/17/06 -- $1,229,000 to $1,150,000
Price Reduced: 07/06/06 -- $1,150,000 to $1,090,000
Days on Market: 269

Zillow sez: $1,083,991
Sale History:
12/01/2005: $200,500
2005 Property Tax: $8,067
Total assessed value: = $1,050,000

Buyer’s revolution price: $672k

649 E SECOND ST, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 06/08/06 -- $2,675,000 to $2,550,000
Price Reduced: 08/10/06 -- $2,550,000 to $2,275,000
Days on Market: 255

Zillow sez: $1,479,850
06/01/2005: $1,429,000
2005 Property Tax: $1,132
Total assessed value: = $1,434,400

Buyer’s revolution price: 512k


167 2ND ST E, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 10/24/06 -- $599,000 to $565,000
Days on Market: 81

Zillow sez: $520,636
No sale history available
2005 Property Tax: $2,294
Total assessed value: = $153,556

Buyer’s revolution price: $300,800

323 2ND ST E, Sonoma, CA 95476
Owners are licensed california real estate brokers.
Price Reduced: 09/01/06 -- $3,475,000 to $3,275,000
Price Reduced: 10/13/06 -- $3,275,000 to $3,175,000
Days on Market: 133

Zillow sez: $1,093,477
Sale History
09/22/2006: $1,095,000
06/30/2006: $885,000
2005 Property Tax: $1,978
Total assessed value: = $131,005

Buyer’s revolution price: hmmm…. Going to have to SWAG this as it was apparently an entirely different house in 2001. 40% haircut from the most recent purchase price.

Buyer’s revolution price: 657k

772 WILLIAM CUNNINGHAM AVE, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 08/31/06 -- $1,675,000 to $1,674,900

OMG!!!! What a Jackass!!! bwahahahaha!!! $100 off original price! If ever you were inclined to go to an open house and roll on the floor and laugh... may I suggest that this be the one you go to?Days on Market: 176

Zillow sez: $1,412,366
No sale history available
2005 Property Tax: $13,668
Total assessed value: = $1,223,082

(new home in armstrong estates -so let’s SWAG a buyer’s revolution price and do 60% of the assessed value ) = $733,849

17645 MIDDLEFIELD RD, Sonoma, CA 95476 - relisted at least once
Bank repo
Price Reduced: 08/16/06 -- $484,000 to $469,500
Price Reduced: 09/20/06 -- $469,500 to $459,500
Price Reduced: 10/20/06 -- $459,500 to $444,444
Days on Market: 114

Updated Sale History:
06/16/2006: $384,779
06/08/2005: $451,00012/31/2002: $315,00010/01/2002: $220,000
2005 Property Tax: $4,256
Total assessed value: = $460,020

Previous posting from 4/19/06 price reduced list
Price Reduced: 04/06/06 -- $505,000 to $498,000
Days on Market: 26
Zillow said: $483,739
Sale History
06/08/2005: $451,000
12/31/2002: $315,000
10/01/2002: $220,000
Tax: $4,181
Tax value: $327,307

Buyer’s revolution price: $256k

17313 PARK AVE, Sonoma, CA 95476 re-listed at least once since 4/19/06
Price Reduced: 06/25/06 -- $575,000 to $574,900
Price Reduced: 06/26/06 -- $574,900 to $569,000
Price Reduced: 08/05/06 -- $569,000 to $559,000
Price Reduced: 10/09/06 -- $559,000 to $549,000
Days on Market: 148

Posting from price reduced list 4/19/06
Price Reduced: 01/31/06 -- $599,999 to $589,999
Days on Market: 188

They relisted it on 2/16/06 trying to make it look like it has not been sitting on the market not selling.

Zillow said: $580,418
No Sale History Available
Tax $1,825
Tax value $115,351

Buyer’s revolution price: 256k

290 SERRES DR, Sonoma, CA 95476 re-listed at least once
Price Reduced: 10/24/06 -- $1,647,500 to $1,599,000
Days on Market: 170

Posting from price reduced list 4/19/06
Price Reduced: 01/03/06 -- $1,650,000 to $1,595,000
Days on Market: 291

Zillow said: $2,064,436
97 value $400k
No Sale History Available
Tax $16,257
Tax value $1,413,720

Buyer’s revolution price: $678,400

15561 ARNOLD DR, Sonoma, CA 95476 on a previous price reduced list
Price Reduced: 04/14/06 -- $1,795,000 to $1,650,000
Days on Market: 271

Posting from 4/19/06 price reduced list:
Price Reduced: 04/14/06 -- $1,795,000 to $1,650,000
Days on Market: 134
zillow said: $1,073,606
Sale History
08/24/2004: $840,000
02/09/2000: $405,000
tax: $5,464
tax value: $886,800
97 value: $350k

Buyer’s revolution price: 576k

4423 LAKESIDE RD, Glen Ellen, CA 95442
Price Reduced: 03/28/06 -- $445,000 to $429,000
Price Reduced: 04/14/06 -- $429,000 to $399,000
Days on Market: 292

From 4/19/06 price reduced list:
zillow said: $480,311
Sale History
06/14/2002: $160,000
12/01/1999: $56,500
09/01/1998: $64,452

Buyer’s revolution price: $160k


17350 MALLARD DR, Sonoma, CA 95476 on a previous price reduced list
Price Reduced: 03/24/06 -- $1,439,000 to $1,399,000
Price Reduced: 05/26/06 -- $1,399,000 to $1,377,000
Days on Market: 253

Posting from 4/19/06 price reduced list:
Zillow said: $995,614
No Sale History Available
Tax $5,705
Tax Value $521,822

Buyer’s revolution price: 826k
(swag’d 40% off list price as no real zillow record)

15 DON TIMOTEO CT, Sonoma, CA 95476 on a previous price reduced list
Price Reduced: 04/13/06 -- $1,075,000 to $999,000
Price Reduced: 05/09/06 -- $999,000 to $990,000
Price Reduced: 06/14/06 -- $990,000 to $979,000
Price Reduced: 06/27/06 -- $979,000 to $950,000
Price Reduced: 09/18/06 -- $950,000 to $925,000
Days on Market: 255

Posting from 4/19/06 price reduced list:
zillow said: $880,060
Sale History
08/09/2005: $735,000
tax: $934
tax value: $77,751
97 value: $180k

Buyer’s revolution price: $268,800


715 BOYES BLVD, Sonoma, CA 95476 this is a serial offender re-listerPrice Reduced: 05/15/06 -- $799,000 to $794,000
Price Reduced: 06/05/06 -- $794,000 to $759,000
Price Reduced: 07/05/06 -- $759,000 to $739,000
Price Reduced: 07/25/06 -- $739,000 to $719,000
Price Reduced: 08/03/06 -- $719,000 to $699,000
Price Reduced: 09/20/06 -- $699,000 to $675,000
Days on Market: 242

Posting from 4/19/06 price reduced list
Price Reduced: 11/14/05 -- $879,000 to $849,000
Price Reduced: 02/08/06 -- $849,000 to $799,000
Days on Market: 224

this one was relisted at $799,000 on 03/06/06 trying to make it look like it too hasn't been sitting...

Zillow said: $592,526
Sale History
01/26/2001: $200,000
Tax $3,455
Tax value $294,781

Buyer’s revolution price: $256k

451 SAN LORENZO CT, Sonoma, CA 95476 relisted at least once
(an uglier house has rarely been seen- Bel Terreno dog of a subdivision)
Price Reduced: 09/05/06 -- $1,295,000 to $1,195,000
Price Reduced: 10/02/06 -- $1,195,000 to $1,100,000
Price Reduced: 10/17/06 -- $1,100,000 to $1,075,000
Days on Market: 172

Posting from 4/19/06 price reduced list

451 453 SAN LORENZO CT, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 03/22/06 -- $1,300,000 to $1,285,000
Days on Market: 100

Zillow could not find the house

SWAG’d Buyer’s revolution price- give them a 40% haircut as their original listing prices from the top of the overblown bubble were not based on quicksand and wishful thinking.

Buyer’s revolution price: $645k

More from Bel Terreno… Not going to bother looking them up.
436 SAN LORENZO CT #16, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 08/30/06 -- $1,355,000 to $1,295,000
Price Reduced: 10/06/06 -- $1,295,000 to $1,225,000
Days on Market: 206

Buyer’s revolution price: $735k

481 SAN LORENZO CT, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 10/17/06 -- $899,000 to $889,999
Days on Market: 71

Buyer’s revolution price: $534k

401 SAN LORENZO CT #11, Sonoma, CA 95476
Another Bel Terreno dog
Price Reduced: 08/30/06 -- $1,385,000 to $1,295,000
Price Reduced: 10/06/06 -- $1,295,000 to $1,225,000
Days on Market: 373

Buyer’s revolution price: $735k

One from Montini… (not looking this up either)

486 MONTINI WAY, Sonoma, CA 95476
Price Reduced: 10/23/06 -- $889,000 to $874,000
Days on Market: 212

40% haircut for them too. Same unfortunate foolishness of the Bel Terreno developers.

Buyer’s revolution price: $525k

National City Mortgage Ooops!

Yahoo News- "National City Corp. said Thursday it will trim its previously stated third-quarter results after discovering the value of mortgage servicing rights were overstated and the amount of reserves for repurchased mortgage loans was understated."

"The mortgage servicing rights were $21 million less than National City had estimated, which will lower loan servicing revenue to $104 million from the $125 million amount it stated earlier.
The company also said that reserves for repurchased loans were understated by $18 million and would be lowered to $215 million."

"The updated amounts will affect the National City Mortgage and First Franklin business units, and lowered third-quarter net income to $551 million to $526 million."

"National City said it figures mortgage serving right values and reserves for repurchased loans using an estimation process that applies the "best available information at the time." After it determined the values for the recent third quarter, more information became available and based on it, National City will revise its earnings."

"National City is the second-largest bank in the Dayton area with $2.2 billion in local deposits and more than 50 branches. It's banking networking is primarily in Ohio, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Missouri and Pennsylvania and had more than $140 billion in total assets as of April."

Today's Insight....

...Brought to you by Carol Lloyd of SFGATE.com

'"It's a great time to generate a commission."'

"Last week, when I received an e-mail press release from the National Association of Realtors previewing its $40 million ad campaign with the slogan, "It's a great time to buy or sell a home," I had to read it twice. Was this a joke? Was there something I didn't understand about the current market that would engender this kind of overweening confidence?"

"This ad campaign seemed to come straight from the Mad Hatter's tea party."

"The full-page ad that appeared in the Wall Street Journal and USA Today last weekend (along with more newspapers this week and TV and radio broadcast spots in the coming year) does its darnedest to paint the perfect real estate storm. Below a classical drawing of a traditional home, NAR stacks the "facts." And although it invokes sellers in the first and last line, the ad obviously targets those infamous buyers who are waiting in the wings."

'"Actually, right now may be one of the best times to buy a home," the copy fairly purrs. "Consider these facts. ..."'

"What follows are all talking points that one would expect, with spin as thick as cotton candy on a stick. The ad's first claim that "interest rates are near 40-year lows" is true but, hello, this isn't news. Interest rates have been low for nearly five years, and compared to last year (when the 30-year fixed mortgage hovered between the high fives and low sixes), today's rates are actually a little higher."

"Ben Bernanke, the new Fed chief, hasn't shown a propensity for radical departures, and most analysts predict that relatively low interest rates are not in danger of disappearing any time soon. "

"The next point -- "Large Inventory Won't Last" -- suggests it's a wonderful time to buy a house simply because there are so many homes to choose from! Since the historically massive inventory of 4 million homes declined in September to a still massive 3.75 million homes, the NAR suggests that buyers should act fast before inventory shrinks even more."

"Expanded selection combined with low interest rates offers buyers an opportunity that may never be available again in their lifetime," says the ad. But many real estate experts admit that the glut in inventory won't disappear overnight. And some think that despite the recent inventory decline, it's just the beginning of seeing even more homes sitting on the market."

" The NAR presses on with a paragraph titled "Prices overall have stabilized" -- again, a statement that strains credibility. How do they know this? The NAR cites the 4.3 percent rise in sales in August as evidence that sales are picking up and so prices will follow."

"Since the ad first appeared, new data has come out showing that sales numbers again dropped 1.1 percent in September, amounting to 13.6 percent lower sales than September 2005. (The ads had to be rewritten for this week's publication.) The ad also trots out the fact that national home prices are expected to rise 1.6 percent in 2006."

"But since when is 1.6 percent good? An average real estate market makes annual gains of 6 percent. And since current inflation hovers above 2 percent, a 1.6 percent gain actually constitutes a net loss. "

"Harvard economist Robert Shiller has argued that current real estate prices are not sustainable, because they have long outstripped rises in rents and incomes. If the inventory grows in the coming year or even just stays the same, then prices may drop, making people who took NAR's advice this month feel like pawns in a chess game. "

"The ad assures readers that real estate is a "safe secure way to build long-term wealth."

"The problem is, as every real estate agent will tell you, the market is cyclical. The 88 percent rise represents a historically unprecedented up cycle. No one with any credibility is predicting that the coming decade will see real estate gains like the last -- so why reference it?"

" Still feeling confused, I called the NAR to get a more thorough explanation as to why they launched this campaign."

"'We believe people aren't aware of the realities of the marketplace," explained Steve Cook, vice president of public affairs. "There's been a lot of negative media coverage, and a lot of people are missing the boat."'

'"In the sense of buyers, right?"'

'"In the sense of sellers, too. They are related. Sellers need buyers and buyers need sellers. They both need to work together."

"Well, yes, that's true of all markets at all times, but it shouldn't be construed to mean it's an "ideal time" for buying and selling. Cook then suggested that since inventory is constricting, it will probably become a better market for sellers."

'"But then it will become a worse market for buyers," I ventured."

"There was a pause on the other end of the line. "Well, yes, but the most important thing is that interest rates are at all-time lows -- that's good for both buyers and sellers. Like the New York Times said, the stars are aligned."'

"Actually, it was the New York Times quoting an NAR spokesman, but let's not quibble."

Truth is Stranger Than Fiction...

CNN Money brings us a true life tale of the Bonnie and Clyde of Mortgage Fraud.

"The real estate market has never offered such opportunity for graft. Since the housing market started to soar in 2001, mortgage fraud has become the fastest-growing white-collar crime, according to the FBI. Last year crooks skimmed at least $1 billion from the $3 trillion U.S. mortgage market."

"Now that the market is slowing, fraud is only rising. As business dries up, there's increasing pressure on lenders, brokers, title companies and appraisers to be profitable. That means loan and title documents aren't scrutinized as carefully as they might be, and courts - many of them so low-tech they resemble Mayberry - can't keep up with the volume of paper. Then there's the mad rush to sell, particularly by people who paid high prices for homes and suddenly can't afford the mortgages."

"It's like a tasting menu for con artists and grifters, so tempting that in some cities drug dealers have turned to mortgage fraud, plaguing lower-income neighborhoods with crooked mortgages rather than crystal meth."

'"It's an easier, more surreptitious crime," says Gale McKenzie, a U.S. attorney in Atlanta (and chief prosecutor on the Cox case)."

"And with a con man like Matthew Cox still at large, any homeowner in the land is vulnerable."

'"Master con men like Cox are charming, manipulative, cunning. They have an amiable facade, which makes them very adept at getting others to like them," says Louis B. Schlesinger, a professor of forensic psychology at John Jay College of Criminal Justice in New York."

"For the better part of the past decade Cox has stalked his prey through MLS (multiple listing service) real estate ads. He has studied county courts, looking for ones he could easily dupe with falsified documents."

"Schooled as an artist, he is an expert at forging signatures. He knows how to obtain corporate seals of actual banks. He launders money in complex webs of cashier's checks made out to counterfeit names. Authorities suspect he has stolen at least $15 million through fraudulent mortgages, although the figure could be much higher."

"Cox's victims have been forced to pay tens of thousands of dollars to lawyers to save their property from foreclosure on unpaid fraudulent loans. They have had to clean up ruined credit. "It's been so stressful, both financially and psychologically," says Bridget Brown.

Schlesinger says classic con men, besides being psychopathic and greedy, are driven by a need to show the world how clever they are. "Their thinking is, 'Look at all these schmucks who actually go to work and earn so much less than I do. I get up at 11, work four hours a day, and make millions.' "

"Their crimes are meticulously planned, and not just to elude law enforcement. "They have an overwhelming need to let others know how smart they are," says Schlesinger. "That's why they often leave notes and various clues behind."'

"Like, for instance, a 317-page hard-boiled crime novel about a serial con artist who becomes a mortgage fraud ace. Federal authorities believe an unpublished book by Cox, called "The Associates," is a blueprint for his crimes."

"They say he started writing it while running a mortgage company in Tampa. To research it, he interviewed top real estate lawyers, mortgage brokers, title agency owners and others - telling them he was working on a novel and quizzing them about the ins and outs of real estate cons.
The main character in the book, Christian Locke, is a hard-working Tampa mortgage broker who ends up running his own company. He gets more crooked as the pages turn."

"Locke is constantly pursued by beautiful women; his advice is sought by real estate pros and con artists. Naturally he gets involved with old-style mobsters when the company he owns helps them obtain fraudulent loans."

"The gangsters knock off his partner for cooperating with the feds in an eerily detailed staged suicide involving a Taser stun gun and a Mercedes sports coupe. From then on, Locke is on the run from the Mob, as well as the FBI, the IRS, and the Secret Service, which are trying to pin fraud charges on him."

"The story Cox spins is chock-full of how-tos:
Christian studied the Florida identification card very carefully for several minutes and realized the name and address portions of the Florida ID and driver's license could be easily sanded off with 220-grade sandpaper. He could then print the new borrower's name and address on the computer in the identical Florida ID fonts, go to Kinko's, make a transparency of the new name and address and paste it over the altered ID. The result was a virtually perfect ID."


Bonnie v. Clyde
"Like all great con men, Cox recognized early on he needed a moll, a charming frontperson who exudes innocence and engenders trust. Rebecca Marie Hauck, a perky, petite blond in her mid-30s, fit the bill perfectly."

"The papers in Florida like to call Hauck and Cox the Bonnie and Clyde of mortgage fraud. Captured in March, Hauck has pleaded guilty to mortgage fraud conspiracy and bank fraud charges that together carry maximum penalties of 35 years in jail plus restitution of $1.25 million. Now Bonnie has turned on Clyde, trying to get her sentence reduced."

"The details of their life on the run are the stuff of tabloid fodder: the sinister parting gifts Cox left behind for his victims after vacating a property he'd stolen; the flashy sports cars they fraudulently purchased, then abandoned in parking lots; the way he posed as a Red Cross worker to steal identities of homeless people ("The homeless just aren't utilized enough," he often quipped); the twisted use of aliases like "David Freeman" when Cox first went on the lam, and "C. Montgomery Burns," the aging moneybags on "The Simpsons" television cartoon."

"Cox and Hauck, starting in December 2003, embarked on a crime spree crisscrossing six states, engaging in identity theft, money laundering and bank fraud, according to an indictment filed in U.S. District Court in Atlanta."

"While on the run with Cox, Hauck assumed at least five identities and forged numerous documents, obtained fake driver's licenses, leased mail drops, rented apartments and opened bank accounts."

"At the Atlanta Correction and Detention Center, off a gritty section of Peachtree Street, surrounded by get-out-of-jail outfits with catchy names like Free at Last Bail Bonds, Hauck, 35, sits in an arraignment room. With its wooden pews, it resembles a chapel. It's chilly in jail, about 60 degrees, she says, so under her standard-issue bright-orange jumpsuit she's wearing white long underwear."

"She recently cropped her strawberry blond hair with a men's electric razor she was allowed to use. She says she's popular in prison because she cuts her fellow inmates' hair and doles out beauty tips."

"When her attorney, Paula Hutchinson, arrives, Hauck is thrilled that she's brought makeup for a Fortune photo session. Hauck, who is called "Becky" by almost everyone, has no more than a high school education, yet she's quite articulate. She says, "People naturally like me 'cause they say I have the gift of gab. I can talk to anyone about anything."'

"She breathlessly tells everything she knows about Matthew Cox - things she thinks might lead to his capture: He takes Paxil and Xanax. She believes he still has the Shar-Pei dog, Pinky, they adopted together. His two front teeth are capped. He wears shoe lifts. He constantly Googles himself. She says he carries a gun."

"Hauck says Cox has talents that handily accompany his chosen profession, like the ability to dramatically alter his appearance and demeanor. He can play the unassuming guy in jeans and a T-shirt, sometimes with blond, spiked or curled (with a curling iron) hair, and just as easily, the straitlaced banker. Hauck says he frequents tanning salons and has had numerous cosmetic surgeries, including male breast reduction, chin liposuction and a nose job."

Cox, she says, grew up in a strict middle-class Catholic family in Tampa. He was diagnosed with dyslexia and attention deficit disorder as a child, and got an art degree from the University of South Florida. Hauck says his insecurity may account for his need to bloodlessly manipulate people.

'"Matthew had a way of controlling me that it's hard for me to explain or even understand myself," she says. One way was buying her stuff: a $3,000 Rolex, thousands of dollars' worth of clothes - and three years ago, a diamond engagement ring. "I loved him, but I can see now how dysfunctional it was. He told me I was ugly, that I wasn't really his type. All that stuff just made me want to please him more."'

'"Hauck says Cox also tried to convince her that theirs were victimless crimes -that no one really ever got hurt, and everyone was in on the con.'"

"Hell, one of the owners of a bank was in my office the other day, and he told me that as long as the borrower makes his first mortgage payment and the bank sells the loan to his secondary investors before the loan goes into foreclosure, he really doesn't give a crap whether the loans contain fraudulent documents or not."

'The answer to my prayers'
"Hauck met Cox on Match.com, the Internet dating service, in September 2003. Both were living in Tampa; she was new in town. Cox had described himself in his ad as a wealthy real estate pro. Plus, "he had posted images of some of his paintings on his Match.com page. I was blown away by his art," Hauck says. "I thought, here's a guy who's both sensitive and successful."'

"Married and divorced twice by the time she was 30, Hauck had had a bit of a scattered life. She was raised in Chicago and Florida and graduated from high school in Arizona in 1989. She worked various jobs in Salt Lake City, Fresno and Las Vegas - Kmart clerk, actuarial assistant order taker for an adult publisher selling sex toys and magazines."

"She had a son, Bryce. In Vegas she got hooked on video poker and eventually racked up $7,500 in gambling debts. She forged checks in her boss's name to pay them off. He found out and axed her. She filed for personal bankruptcy. Her next move with young Bryce was to Tampa, where she got a secretarial job at the greyhound racing track in St. Petersburg."

'"Matt Cox seemed the answer to my prayers," she says. On their first date, he took her to his company, Urban Equity Inc. "There were about 20 people working for him, calling him 'Mr. Cox.' He was really running the show. His employees adored him," she says."

"Then he took her to a fancy sushi restaurant in Ybor City. There was more to the attraction. "He drove this great Audi TT. He had a fabulous Mediterranean-style triplex apartment." His walls were covered by his Dali-esque murals: One depicted nuns smoking, another in the bathroom showed a priest oddly peering over a shower curtain. "I would say, 'Why don't you make a living selling your art? You could do it!'"

"He had other valuable art. One evening as the couple was headed out to dinner, Cox took one of his paintings off the wall and pulled a stack of bills out of the back. He told Hauck he always kept $35,000 in cash there: "He said it was his emergency money." She didn't ask any questions.
Cox was obsessed, naturally, with crime movies. One night they saw the edgy film "Matchstick Men," in which Nicolas Cage plays an ace con who ends up victimized himself by the mother of all cons. It provided a conversation starter."

"Cox confessed to Hauck he was on state and federal probation for mortgage fraud. Hauck says he somewhat proudly showed her an article about his company that had recently appeared in the St. Petersburg Times."

'"I thought, 'Oh, we all make mistakes. I want to give him a chance,'" says Hauck. It was all too alluring, if dangerous, for the lonely single mom working at the dog track who seemed to crave living on the edge a little too much herself."

"[Christian Locke confesses to his girlfriend:] "I got a little to [sic] creative with some of my own personal loan applications. And well, the FBI has subpoenaed the lender files, title company files, bank accounts and God only knows what else. That's several million in fraudulent mortgage loans."'

"Could you go to jail?"

"Christian began to laugh and said, "Yeah, I can go to jail."'

Life on the lam
"Cox's probation grew out of a 2002 guilty plea for bank fraud and grand theft. He had started out after college as an insurance agent, but soon noticed that friends in the mortgage business were driving fancy cars and living in posh apartments. He jumped into real estate just as the market started to take off."

"At first Cox studied the business, learning the ropes legitimately (and working on his novel), but soon he was lured to the seedy side, shrewdly doing small-time mortgage frauds - typically targeting low-end properties, taking out loans around $100,000. That kept him under the radar."

"But after Cox inadvertently sent a forged appraisal to the very appraiser whose name he had forged - a man who happened to be a former deputy sheriff - he was arrested and convicted in 2002."

"After his sentencing, Cox's criminal activities only increased. He joined Urban Equity as a partner and allegedly masterminded a scheme to buy 21 run-down Tampa properties and inflate their value using corrupt appraisers and title companies."

"One way Cox got the deals done, authorities say, was to hire so-called straw men - people willing to pose or act as buyers. The straw man would tell the homeowner, "I want to buy your house - I'll pay you the full price you're asking. But I need a loan for triple the purchase price to make improvements. Would you agree to up the price just for the paperwork?"'

"The unsophisticated sellers agreed. Why not? They were getting their price, and heck, the house needed repairs anyway. After the price was artificially inflated, the straw man would take out a loan, pay the homeowner the full price, pocket some cash, and give the biggest cut by far - around 90 percent - to Cox. Cox and his associates netted $2.7 million in fraudulent loans, authorities say."

"That alleged scam was big enough to draw the interest of the FBI, which started investigating Cox, and also of a determined reporter, Jeff Testerman of the St. Petersburg Times, who wrote a series of stories about the straw-men deals."

"Cox discovered that the newspaper was planning to print a major article on him and Urban Equity on Dec. 14, 2003. "The shit was going to hit the fan," says Hauck. Cox knew he'd be nabbed if he stuck around Tampa."

"So just days before the piece ran - it was called "Dubious Deals" - the two took off up the highway in another Audi, a new, $80,000 S6 coupe Cox bought using an alias. Hauck's son was in Vegas with his grandparents for Christmas. Cox left his 5-year-old son, Casio, behind with his ex-wife."

"At first the couple had no idea where to go. "Matt had hardly been outside of Tampa his whole life," she says. They drove north to the Atlanta area, barely stopping."

"On the road Cox came up with a scheme: If they lived in one state and committed frauds in another, it would be harder for authorities to track them. So they moved into a residence hotel in Atlanta and within a few weeks developed a plan to defraud a homeowner in Tallahassee, a wheelchair-bound former office manager named Theresa A. Knight."

"That's when Hauck committed her first crime with Cox: She leased a mail drop at a UPS store outside Atlanta, presenting a fake Florida driver's license in Theresa Knight's name, according to court documents."

"That same day, Cox drove from Atlanta to Tallahassee, where he made a visit to the local county clerk. There, he filed a fraudulent satisfaction-of-mortgage form, forging the signatures of Knight and two purported bank officers, showing that Knight's mortgage had been paid off."

"Copies of the court-approved mortgage satisfaction were sent to the mail drop Hauck had opened. Now that the property was "free and clear," in real estate parlance, the couple could apply for new mortgages on it. Hauck, still posing as Knight, and Cox received $53,000 at a closing weeks later in Tallahassee. "That's when Matt said to me, 'There's no going back now. You're in just as deep as I am,'" says Hauck."

"Swindlers by day, couch potatoes in the evening, Cox and Hauck became hooked on the HBO series Oz, a hard-core account of prison life complete with gang rapes and murders. Cox, says Hauck, warned her that's what jail was like. "He was always trying to scare me so I wouldn't turn us in," she says, adding, "Matt was terrified of going to jail - he was scared of getting raped by another guy."'

'"I'm not going to prison, Amy. Look at me. A cute little morsel like me in prison? Hell, no."'

Nearly nabbed
"Back in Atlanta they zeroed in on their next victim. Michael A. Shanahan was a newly engaged finance manager who had spent his nest egg to buy a house, a rental investment property, in Alpharetta, Ga., a suburb north of Atlanta."

"Hauck, this time posing as Grace Hudson ("a totally made-up name," she says), showed up on Shanahan's doorstep in January 2004 pretending to be new to the area and an employee of Lloyd's & Associates ("a totally made-up company. Matt said to tell people it was a Lloyd's of London subsidiary")."

"When she explained that she lacked a credit history - she said she was just divorced and nothing had been in her name - he told her not to worry. "You seem trustworthy," he said."

"The couple then pulled the same scam they'd done in Tallahassee. But this time they upped the ante, netting $329,000 on Shanahan's home from three different lenders. With the ill-gotten gains, Hauck visited Alpharetta's Swan Center for Plastic Surgery in March and spent almost $12,000 on liposuction, a tummy tuck, and breast implants. Cox bought a brand-new silver Honda Element."

"It wasn't until June that Shanahan discovered that his identity and property had been stolen and that fraudulent loans had been taken out on his home. "Grace Hudson" had been sending him monthly rent checks, so his suspicions weren't aroused. But when he went to check on the house, he found a stack of mail addressed to different aliases. He also found a particularly disturbing piece of art created by Cox: a bizarre papier-machâ statue of a man kneeling on the floor. The statue's face resembled Edvard Munch's masterpiece, "The Scream."'

'"It was like Cox was saying, 'You sucker.' It wasn't enough for him to practically ruin someone's life," says Paula Hutchinson, Hauck's defense lawyer. By then, Cox and Hauck had vanished again. But this time the Secret Service was on their tail, searching for the couple they knew only as "John and Jane Doe."'

"Cox and Hauck moved to Charlotte, N.C. Cox commuted to Columbia, S.C., an hour and a half away, to commit more scams."

"The Secret Service put together a "Wanted" poster for the couple, using images obtained from fake IDs the pair had used at a bank closing, and the Charlotte television news aired a piece about them. A Florida FBI agent had identified them, and their real names were now being publicized. Cox and Hauck knew they had to escape again."

"Late one night, "I told Matt, 'I can't go on anymore, this is it for me!'" says Hauck. He lost his temper, threw her on the floor, and started choking her. She screamed, and a neighbor knocked on the door. He shushed her: "Shut up, bitch, or you'll get us caught!" She says, "I realized then he could kill me. No one knew who I really was, and my family thought I was dead. He'd get away with it."'

"Soon after, she says, she headed off to Houston in a sparkling new Infiniti FX 35 SUV - a vehicle she'd fraudulently bought. The plan was that Cox would follow after wrapping up some business."

"One day in February 2005, Mary Nell Degenhart, a Columbia, S.C., real estate lawyer, met a man known as Gary Sullivan at a loan closing. "He talked a great game. He made you feel like you were dealing with a pro. He had all the right documentation, all in perfect order. Though in retrospect, all fake," she says."

'"You could tell he wanted things to go as smoothly as possible so he could just get out of there quickly." At the same time, an abstractor researching records for Degenhart in the local courthouse noticed Sullivan had obtained six loans totaling nearly $1 million on two separate properties within a four-day period. "It was outright illegal," she says."

"She arranged for a fraud alert to be sent to Columbia banks, and a few days later, when Cox was walking out of a Wachovia Bank in Columbia, cops nabbed him. They allowed him to drive his own car to the police station. On the way he called Hauck in Houston on his cell phone and said, "You might be on your own from here!"'

"She says they were both freaking out. At the station he played it cool, showing police another fake ID. When one cop noted that Cox seemed shorter than the 5 feet 9 inches listed on it, Cox joked, "Hey, fellas, you do what you gotta do to impress the ladies!"'

"Astoundingly, he convinced them he wasn't Sullivan. The police let him go. Degenhart, who mutters something in her Southern drawl about the Keystone Kops, says, "It was unbelievable. Cox had the police laughing at his jokes. He charmed them!"'

"That night Christian had nightmares of John Walsh profiling him on "America's Most Wanted".... Christian tossed and turned while the "America's Most Wanted" phones lit up and calls poured in from around the world."

"There was a follow-up nightmare where Christian was shown handcuffed, wearing an orange prison uniform and trying to hide his face from the camera. Walsh said, "Thanks to your tips, we caught this sleazy bastard and tonight, he's behind bars where he belongs."'

Vanishing act
"Cox then motored down to Houston in a new Infiniti sedan. When he got there, Hauck says, he told her he wanted his own apartment, he wanted to break up. They argued, yelling and throwing things. The next morning, when Hauck got out of the shower, Cox had vanished.
Hauck says she took it stoically. She took a new name, Rebecca Hickey, and though still in hiding, she says she went straight. She cocktail-waitressed at night and attended beauty school by day. She got back in touch with her family, letting them know she was okay."

"One day in March she was styling a mannequin's hair in beauty school when five federal agents burst through the door. "My classmates were terrified. But I stayed pretty calm," she says. "It was like I was just waiting for this to happen."'

"Hauck, who will be sentenced on Nov. 15, remains at the Atlanta correction facility (locally referred to as the "ACDC"). Her attorney argues that she was manipulated by Cox. "Becky was totally controlled by Matt, there's no question," says Hutchinson."

"Turns out Hauck wasn't the only one. In a Tampa jail sits Alison Arnold, 32, finishing a two-year sentence. Also a single mom and a petite blond, Arnold became Matt Cox's accomplice in Tampa in 2003, right before Hauck, pulling off similar schemes until she was charged with fraud."

"Hutchinson believes Cox has worked with yet another small-framed blond since Hauck, possibly in South Carolina. She contends the woman Cox introduced to the Browns as his realtor wasn't Hauck. In fact, Hauck says she caught Cox going on Match.com one day in Charlotte. "Matt told me he always needs a woman like me to help him - that people trust women more than men," says Hauck, who adds that he said people's basic nature was to trust, "and because of that, you could easily take advantage of them."'

Sonoma Housing Hairball

... Not a pretty picture

Press Democrat
"The county's housing market has been falling back after an eight-year run of soaring sales and prices reached its peak in August 2005. The correction was expected, with Chris Thornberg, a principal with Beacon Economics in Los Angeles and formerly with the UCLA Anderson Forecast, and other economists saying it was overdue, but it has been quicker and stronger than many anticipated."

"The housing downturn already is causing job losses in construction and real estate and could depress consumer spending, increasing the chances for a recession."

"Home prices: Falling home prices will hit bottom early next year and remain flat into 2011."

"It was a bubble. And the bubble is popping. The real debate is whether this is going to be a soft or hard landing," Thornberg said.

"Many builders, brokers and lenders have become resigned to the housing slowdown, yet hope Thornberg was wrong when he predicted the market won't regain strength until 2011."

'"I think he was confirming what we have been watching. We've been there before. It's going to be a little longer than I would like to see," said Phil Trowbridge, a longtime home builder who noted sales have slowed at his Vintage Greens development in Windsor."

"Sonoma County home sales are down more than 27 percent so far this year. The median price has fallen 7.7 percent over the last year to $567,000 in September."

"Falling prices already have led to rising loan defaults for many more homeowners across Sonoma County and state. Others could feel the pinch when it comes to spending decisions because they feel less wealthy."

'"How consumers respond, that waits to be seen," Thornberg said. "This might all blow over. On the other hand, there is the potential for a true catastrophe."

One reason is Americans over the past 18 months have registered the lowest savings rate since the Great Depression. The gap between spending and disposable income has fallen from 7 to 8 percent in the early 1990s to negative levels today, Thornberg said.

"This is not a pretty picture," he said.

"Two forecasts - by Moody's Economy.com and UCLA - predict housing will remain weak for at least two more years and as long as five years. Prices should dip lower before leveling and then move little for several years, absent a recession and significant job losses in sectors other than housing."

"Still, what is going on in housing remains troubling, Thornberg said. The market's annual double-digit price increases the last several years drew buyers who figured the gains would never end, setting up a painful correction, he said."

"A home is a spectacular investment, but not because of its value," he said.

"Yet homeowners increasingly viewed homes as a piggy bank rather than a roof over their head that would provide modest gains over the long run, Thornberg said. Historically low interest rates largely drove the surge, making monthly mortgage payments less costly and allowing buyers to purchase more with their money even as prices went higher."

"Adding fuel to the housing sector were loans that further reduced costs for buying and refinancing homes. Lenders expanded offerings of these interest-only loans and option mortgages with even lower monthly payments that allowed buyers to qualify for larger loans."

"Thornberg described it as "funny money" because those monthly payments eventually go higher, and homeowners rely on rising property values to refinance into new loans or sell to pay off loans."